The concise dynamic model of population since the foundation of our state is done by means of intervention and time series method ; at the same time this model makes forecasting of people ' s development trend in the following several years 摘要本文利用干预时序模型方法简明扼要地对我国建国以来的人口发展趋势建立了动态模型,并预测了未来几年我国人口发展的趋势。