Then in this paper the author establishes the simulation model of the probability of smashing the submarine when the segregator of the submarine launched missile carrier sinking in the water and uses the monte carlo ( of or relating to a problem - solving technique that uses random samples and other statistical methods for finding solutions to mathematical or physical problems . ) to simulate the whole process . then the author carrier through much simulating computations and gives the smashing probability at different conditions 在对分离体下沉的各种干扰因素进行了深入的分析后，建立了基于蒙特卡罗方法的潜射导弹运载器分离体砸艇概率的计算模型，并且进行了大量的计算机仿真试验，分别对运载器采用平面弹道，偏航弹道在不同发射深度，不同发射艇速的情况下的分离体砸艇概率进行了仿真计算，给出了不同情况的砸艇概率。
