Then the paper estimates the parameter of the model with different techniques such as econometrics and emulates the seaborne volume system of china petroleum exports and imports in 2010 with vensim 然后应用经济计量学等多种方法对模型参数进行估计,并运用vensim仿真语言对2010年中国石油进出口海运量系统进行仿真模拟。